Management and Economics wood
Amir Tavakkoli; Amir Hooman Hemmasi; Mohammad Talaeipour; Behzad Bazyar; Ajang Tajdini
Abstract
The objective of the research is to forecast the trend of the printing and writing paper consumption in Iran for a five-year period using both modern and classical methods. In order to do the forecasting, predictability of time series was primarily studied using Durbin-Watson and Runs tests. Then, artificial ...
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The objective of the research is to forecast the trend of the printing and writing paper consumption in Iran for a five-year period using both modern and classical methods. In order to do the forecasting, predictability of time series was primarily studied using Durbin-Watson and Runs tests. Then, artificial neural network model (multilayer perceptrons (MLP)) and univariate and multivariate classical forecasting models such as univariate single exponential smoothing (SES), double exponential smoothing (DES), holt-winters exponential smoothing (HWES) and Box- Jenkins (ARIMA) models, and multivariate econometric model all together were compared in terms of the standard statistical measures. Finally, the consumption of printing and writing paper in Iran was forecasted up to the year 2017 using the most appropriate model. The results of both the parametric test of Durbin-Watson and non-parametric test of Runs show that, the printing and writing consumption series is non-random and predictable. The results of comparing different forecast methods showed that the artificial neural network model has higher forecasting accuracy than the classical models and it is more appropriate for the five-year forecast period. Also, the results of forecasting by using neural network model (MLP), revealed that the printing and writing paper consumption in Iran is forecasted to increase by 5.3%, from around 375 thousand tons in 2012 to 420 thousand tons in 2013, but it falls over the five-year forecast period, from 5.3% in 2013 to 0.07% in 2017.
Management and Economics wood
Amir Tavakkoli; Ajang Tajdini; Mehran Roohnia; Ahmad Jahan latibari
Abstract
Corrugated board is considered as a valuable community for packaging at both international and domestic markets. Therefore for the development of corrugated board industry in Iran and to understand the variation in demand for this product, it's necessary to identify the consumption ...
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Corrugated board is considered as a valuable community for packaging at both international and domestic markets. Therefore for the development of corrugated board industry in Iran and to understand the variation in demand for this product, it's necessary to identify the consumption and production patterns as well as the most important and effective variables influencing it's status. Then the demand & supply for corrugated board can be forecasted. In this study, the dynamic econometric model has been used to demonstrate simultaneous relationship between supply and demand. Coefficients of the model were estimated using 3sls method with the time series data from 1981 to 2007. The results indicated that in the demand function, intercept, price, GNP in previous period, population, CPI, industrial added value(Iav), production index of large-scale industries(PILSI) and the war dummy variables are significant at 0.05 level. In the supply function, intercept, production quantity in previous period, inflation rate, corrugated board price-raw material price ratio in previous period, import quantity in previous period, cost price all in previous period and subsidy dummy variables are significant at 0.05 level. Results indicate that the mentioned variables influence consumption and production, simultaneously. The results of projection also demonstrate that corrugated board production & consumption will increase into 2012.
